BrownBagBets Daily — Nov 5, 2025 | UCL, NCAAF, NHL & NBA Picks

🏀 March Madness Countdown • Tip‑Off ETA:  132 days (Mar 17, 2026)

Legacy tracker kept for continuity — we don’t chase days; we prepare for them.

📅 Wednesday, Nov 5, 2025 • 11:30 AM ET

We pressed pause on the late slate yesterday because the price wasn’t there—and that restraint mattered. We still finished 4–3 and nudged the bankroll to 85%. Today we widen the board and open the hood with indicator notes for every pick. Quick context for new readers: when we cite “Laws,” we’re pulling from our forthcoming eBook BrownBagBets Laws: Betting as Cash Flow—a practical framework we use to size risk and grade edges. We’ll rotate principles so you see the whole system in action. For today, we’re leaning on Law #6: No Forced Action (pass if the number’s gone) and Law #4: Small Edges Compound (1–4% stakes, consistently applied). Final snapshot posts by 5:00 PM ET; if the market runs past our numbers, we pass, not chase.

Yesterday’s Results — Tue, Nov 4

UEFA — Arsenal at Slavia Praha

Arsenal −1.5 (−115)

Wager 3%WIN

UEFA — Eintracht Frankfurt at Napoli

Under 3.5 (−165)

Wager 2%WIN

UEFA — Bayern Munich at PSG

PSG ML (+150)

Wager 2%LOSS

UEFA — Union SG at Atlético Madrid

Atlético −1.5 (−125)

Wager 2%WIN

UEFA — PSV at Olympiakos

Over 2.5 (−140)

Wager 2%LOSS

NCAAF — Miami (OH) at Ohio

Miami (OH) +3 (−115)

Wager 4%LOSS

NCAAB — Louisiana Tech at Nevada

Nevada −8

Wager 4%WIN

Net impact (risk model): +2% day; we sized correctly into edges and avoided adding correlated exposure late.

Performance Dashboard — November (Live)

Bankroll (start→current)

100% → 85%

Updated with yesterday’s 4–3 slate

20–23–1

MTD Record

46.5%

Win Rate

Law #1: bankroll as oxygen. Law #2: indicators over ego.

By Sport

UCL (UEFA)

3–2

EPL

2–2

NCAAF

5–5

NFL

6–9–1

NHL

2–0

NBA

0–1

NCAA Basketball

1–2

By Market

Spread

7–7

Moneyline

5–10

Totals

5–2–1

Props

3–4

YTD Bankroll Tracker — 2025

Jan

82%

Feb

124%

Mar

128%

Apr

147%

May

58%

Jun

52%

Jul

121%

Aug

124%

Sep

171%

Oct

142%

Nov (MTD)

85%

Month-end review mindset: we celebrate the month, not the moment. 7 of 10 completed periods were net positive.

Today’s Picks — With Indicator Notes

UEFA — Chelsea at Qarabag

Qarabag +1.5 (−110)

Indicators: Home form vs top opposition; Chelsea injury list; recent xGA suppression at home.

Stake 1%

UEFA — Kairat Almaty at Inter

Under 4.5 (−135)

Indicators: Inter clean-sheet trend in group stages; delta between team strengths but low-state game script.

Stake 1%

UEFA — Galatasaray at Ajax

Ajax +0.25 (−105)

Indicators: Home split vs Turkish sides; opponent absences; price tolerance: quarter-ball protection.

Stake 2%

UEFA — Atalanta at Olympique

Atalanta +0.5 (−128)

Indicators: Draw frequency under current manager; stylistic match-up → counter windows; venue tax applied.

Stake 2%

UEFA — Barcelona at Club Brugge

Over 3.5 (−120)

Indicators: BTTS + O2.5 trend; aggressive press; returning attackers → finishing lift.

Stake 3%

NCAAF — Kent State at Ball State

Ball State ML (−135)

Indicators: Kent St road profile; Ball St home splits; pass-rush edge (Voorhis).

Stake 4%

NHL — Blues at Capitals

Capitals ML (−145)

Indicators: Opponent road skid; lineup health returning; goalie matchup.

Stake 3%

NHL — Blue Jackets at Flames

Blue Jackets ML (−102)

Indicators: Calgary goal scoring drought; PP inefficiency; rest/travel spot.

Stake 4%

NBA — Nets at Pacers

Pascal Siakam over 26.5 pts (−105)

Indicators: 30.7% usage; opponent defensive rating; recent 4/5 over 27.

Stake 1%

NBA — Nets at Pacers

Pacers −6 (−125)

Indicators: Injury-driven offensive load; market movement confirmation.

Stake 1%

NBA — Timberwolves at Knicks

Knicks ML (−150)

Indicators: Home unbeaten run; opponent key absence; number drift.

Stake 2%

We’ll only add if indicators clear thresholds. If the market moves through our numbers, we pass — process over results.

About the BrownBagBets Laws

Readers keep asking what these “Laws” are. They’re the chapters of our upcoming eBook, BrownBagBets Laws: Betting as Cash Flow. Each law is a repeatable rule we apply in real time—things like Law #6: No Forced Action, Law #4: Small Edges Compound, and Law #9: Correlation Can Kill. Until release, we’ll keep citing the relevant laws so you can see how the framework drives decisions—not vibes.

FAQ

Why share indicator notes today?

We do this proactively when the slate includes lesser-known sides or when followers ask. It speeds up vetting and keeps Law #2 front and center.

How do you size across many leagues?

Correlation and confidence bands drive 1–4% stakes. No martingales. Law #1: bankroll is oxygen.

When is the card final?

We publish a 5:00 PM ET snapshot. Adds/hedges after that are rare and documented next morning.

BrownBagBets • Transparent. Data-first. Process-disciplined. This content is educational and not financial advice.