Winning Strategy: NHL Stanley Cup, MLB Picks, and Euro 2024 Highlights

Last night was a winning night for us at BrownBagBets, gaining 6% overnight to our bankroll. As we look to today’s Friday slate, we are extremely optimistic heading into the weekend with what we see coming.

NHL Stanley Cup Final

The NHL Stanley Cup is back to center stage. Who could have predicted this turn of events? Not after the Florida Panthers jumped out to a convincing 3-0 series lead. Not even after the Edmonton Oilers humbled the Eastern Conference Champs 8-1 in Game 4. It wasn't until Connor McDavid buried the empty net goal in Game 5 that bettors could be sure there would be a Game 6.

MLB Slate

The Major League Baseball calendar for Friday, June 21, features 14 games. Below, you'll find a breakdown of the games we are analyzing from the slate. Our thorough analysis and strategic betting approach give us confidence in securing some key wins tonight.

Euro 2024 Highlights

Poland vs. Austria (Group D)

Poland and Austria meet for their second match in Group D. Both teams have yet to secure a point, making this match critical for their chances of advancing to the knockout stage.

Poland had a promising start in their first match against the Netherlands, taking an early 1-0 lead with a technically sound header from Adam Buksa. However, they couldn't maintain their advantage, as Cody Gakpo equalized 10 minutes later and Wout Weghorst scored the decisive goal in the 83rd minute, resulting in a 2-1 loss for Poland.

Similarly, Austria showed resilience against France but ultimately succumbed to a very unfortunate deflection off Max Wöber’s header, leading to a 1-0 defeat for Austria.

France vs. Netherlands (Group D)

In one of the best matchups of Euro 2024, France and the Netherlands will meet at Red Bull Arena in Leipzig, Germany, for a pivotal game in Group D.

The French secured three points in the opener with a 1-0 win over Austria, but there are big questions about the health of star Kylian Mbappé. Meanwhile, the Dutch also got off to a winning start with a comeback victory over Poland. These nations played each other in the qualifying, which should give us some great data points to find a winning bet here.

Let’s Get It!

As always, at BrownBagBets, we meticulously analyze each pick and adjust our wager guidance to maximize returns. With our disciplined approach and strategic insights, we’re set for another exciting day of sports betting. Let’s dive into today’s picks and wagers and make the most of these opportunities.

Euro 2024: Austria vs Poland

Pick:

Austria ML @ +100 / Wager: 5%

Analysis:

Poland's Previous Performance: Poland’s recent 1-2 loss against the Netherlands highlighted some defensive issues and a bit of bad luck. Cody Gakpo's equalizer was a deflected shot that left goalkeeper Wojciech Szczęsny with no chance. Despite the defensive solidity shown, conceding two goals overshadowed Poland’s efforts.

Moreover, Poland were without their star striker Robert Lewandowski, who is also likely to miss the upcoming game against Austria. This is a significant absence, but Poland’s overall play did not seem drastically affected in comparison to their World Cup performances with Lewandowski. Poland has shown resilience, managing to secure results even when going a goal down in 40% of their games over the past year. Their defense has kept clean sheets in 50% of their last 10 matches, and they maintain an average possession rate of 55%, demonstrating their ability to control games effectively.

Poland's Tactical Approach: Poland’s primary attacking threat comes from their pacey full-backs, Nicola Zalewski and Przemyslaw Frankowski. Their speed on the flanks could be problematic for Austria's midfield, which may struggle to counter quick transitions. Poland's reliance on wing play is evident as 75% of their counterattacks have been successful through the wings in recent matches. This tactical approach could exploit Austria’s defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in wide areas.

Austria's Strengths: Austria put up a commendable performance against France, losing narrowly due to an own goal. This match showcased Austria’s potential and should boost their confidence. The key advantage Austria has over Poland, and many other teams in the tournament, lies in their midfield.

Midfield Dominance: Austria’s midfield, featuring versatile players like Marcel Sabitzer and Konrad Laimer, is adept at controlling the game's tempo. They maintain an average possession rate of 57%, slightly higher than Poland's. Austria’s midfielders excel in pressing and regaining possession quickly, averaging 13 interceptions per match. This ability to disrupt Poland’s build-up play and counterattacks could be decisive.

Offensive Capabilities: Austria's attack, led by players such as Marko Arnautović and Michael Gregoritsch, has been productive, scoring an average of 1.6 goals per game in recent fixtures. They have also shown strong set-piece capabilities, with 30% of their goals in the last 12 months coming from corners or free kicks. This could be a key factor against a Polish defense that occasionally struggles with aerial threats.

Austria's midfield versatility and efficiency, combined with their dynamic attack, make them well-equipped to challenge Poland. After a strong showing against France, Austria should be optimistic about their chances. At even money, backing Austria to win provides value given their strengths and Poland’s potential vulnerabilities, especially with Lewandowski's absence.

Euro 2024: Netherlands vs France

Pick:

France ML @ +125 / Wager: 5%

Analysis:

France's Form and Strengths: France are blessed with talent in all areas of the field. The midfield duo of Adrien Rabiot and N’Golo Kante proved crucial as they dealt with a combative Austrian side in their opener. Both players will need to replicate that performance against the Netherlands.

France's recent form has been impressive, with only two defeats in normal time in their last 20 matches, both losses coming against Germany. During this run, France have averaged 2.63 goals per game while conceding just 0.74. This combination of potent attacking and solid defending makes them one of the most formidable teams in the tournament.

France vs Netherlands Historical Matchup: The Netherlands have struggled historically against France, winning just one of the eight meetings between the sides since the start of 2014. France have consistently found ways to exploit weaknesses in the Dutch defense, often capitalizing on high defensive lines to create scoring opportunities. Didier Deschamps will likely continue to leverage France's quick transition play and intricate passing to break down the Dutch defense.

Netherlands' Current Form: The Netherlands have been solid but not spectacular in their recent fixtures. They demonstrated resilience in their 2-1 comeback win over Poland, with Cody Gakpo scoring the equalizer and Wout Weghorst netting the winner. However, Ronald Koeman’s side will face a much sterner test against France.

The Dutch have lost just two of their last 10 matches, with one of those being a narrow 2-1 defeat to France. While the Netherlands have been able to score consistently, netting an average of 2.57 goals per game in their last 14 internationals, they will need to tighten up defensively to have any chance of upsetting the French.

Goals Expectation: Historically, matches between France and the Netherlands have tended to be high-scoring affairs, with four of the last five head-to-heads featuring three or more goals. Given the attacking prowess of both sides, we can expect a similar outcome in this match.

France’s ability to exploit high defensive lines, coupled with the Netherlands’ defensive vulnerabilities, suggests that there will be plenty of goal-scoring opportunities. Both teams have demonstrated their attacking capabilities, and while the Netherlands have scored in their last 14 internationals, France’s defensive solidity will be tested.

Key Players: For France, Kylian Mbappe remains a crucial figure. Despite suffering a broken nose in the match against Austria, he is expected to start and will be key to France’s attacking strategy. His ability to stretch defenses and create scoring opportunities will be vital.

The Netherlands will rely heavily on the attacking contributions of Cody Gakpo and Wout Weghorst. Gakpo’s recent form has been excellent, and his ability to score crucial goals will be needed if the Dutch are to challenge the French defense.

Both teams will be looking to build on their opening group victories and take control of Group D. France, with their superior squad depth and historical dominance over the Netherlands, are well-positioned to secure a win. Given the attacking capabilities of both sides and the likelihood of a high-scoring match, backing France to win at +125 provides solid value.

NHL Stanley Cup Finals (Game 6): Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers

Pick: Over 5.5 Goals / Wager: 4%

Pick: Edmonton ML / Wager: 4%

Overview of the Series: This series has taken a dramatic turn as the Oilers are making a historic push to erase an 0-3 deficit, a feat only accomplished four times in NHL history and never in the Finals since the 1942 Maple Leafs. The Oilers have found their scoring touch, putting up 15 goals across the past seven periods, forcing Sergei Bobrovsky out of Game 4 and keeping the momentum in Game 5. This sudden surge in offense has shifted the dynamic of the series significantly.

Scoring Trends and Total Goals: Despite the increase in scoring, the "total" has remained consistent at 5.5 goals. This line seems too low considering the recent offensive explosion. Over the past three games, the teams have combined for 24 goals, easily surpassing the 5.5 total each time. Both teams have the offensive firepower to continue this trend, with the likes of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl for the Oilers and Matthew Tkachuk for the Panthers leading the charge.

Edmonton's Momentum and Home Advantage: The Oilers have all the momentum heading into Game 6. After a shaky start to the series, they have unlocked the Panthers' defense and found ways to consistently beat Bobrovsky. Connor McDavid, in particular, has been exceptional, delivering back-to-back four-point games, the first such performance in Stanley Cup Finals history. His leadership and playmaking are key reasons for Edmonton's resurgence.

Playing at home is another significant advantage for the Oilers. The support of the home crowd can provide a psychological edge and energy boost, crucial in high-stakes games like this. Edmonton netminder Stuart Skinner has also been solid, particularly in the latter stages of the playoffs, providing the stability the Oilers need in goal.

Florida's Response and Defensive Woes: The Panthers are facing immense pressure to close out the series on the road. Their defensive struggles have been evident, with Bobrovsky's form dipping at a crucial juncture. Florida's typically stout defense has been unable to contain the Oilers' potent attack, leading to high-scoring affairs. They will need to tighten up defensively and find a way to support Bobrovsky if they hope to stymie Edmonton's relentless offense.

The Oilers have found their stride and appear poised to force a Game 7. Their offensive firepower, led by an unstoppable Connor McDavid, and the support of the home crowd, give them a significant edge. Meanwhile, the Panthers will need to find a way to shore up their defense and get Bobrovsky back to his best. Given the scoring trends and the current momentum, betting on the over 5.5 goals and backing Edmonton on the money line are both solid plays.

MLB: Chicago Cubs at New York Mets

Pick: Cubs ML / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

Cubs' Recent Form: The Chicago Cubs seem to have found a spark, winning two consecutive games for only the second time since early May. This could be a sign of the team building some momentum, and they often perform well in Friday matinees, making this a particularly favorable spot for them.

Shota Imanaga's Dominance: Shota Imanaga has been outstanding this season, and he’s the favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year. His numbers are impressive across the board, boasting a 1.31 ERA at Wrigley Field and an even more remarkable 0.88 ERA in five-day starts. His performance at home and during day games has been particularly dominant, suggesting he thrives in these conditions. The Mets had interest in Imanaga this offseason, highlighting his perceived talent and potential impact.

Mets' Struggles with Jose Quintana: Former Cub Jose Quintana takes the mound for the Mets, and his road struggles have been notable. Quintana has an ERA close to 7.00 away from home, which is a significant concern for the Mets. His inconsistency on the road contrasts sharply with Imanaga's reliability, providing a clear edge to the Cubs in the pitching matchup.

Betting Market Perception: Given Imanaga’s form and Quintana’s road woes, this line should arguably be around -170 for the Cubs. Backing them at the current odds offers good value, considering the Cubs’ potential to extend their winning streak and continue their resurgence.

The Cubs have an excellent opportunity to capitalize on their recent form and favorable conditions in this matchup. Shota Imanaga’s dominance, particularly in day games and at home, combined with Jose Quintana’s struggles on the road, makes the Cubs a strong pick. Given these factors, placing a wager on the Cubs' money line is a strategic move.

MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies

Pick: Phillies ML / Wager: 7%

Analysis:

Phillies' Winning Probability: The Phillies have a 61% chance of winning according to simulations, which implies a money line of -156. This gives us an edge given the current odds, making the Phillies a strong value pick.

Phillies' Performance Against Left-Handed Pitching: Philadelphia ranks third in MLB in weighted on-base average (wOBA) against left-handed pitching. This prowess should be even more impactful with Trea Turner back in the lineup, enhancing their offensive capabilities against lefties like Jordan Montgomery.

Jordan Montgomery's Struggles: Montgomery is having a tough season, recording the lowest strikeout rate of his career and struggling with both his sinker and changeup. His inability to consistently get outs and limit damage makes him vulnerable, especially against a Phillies lineup that excels against left-handers.

Taijuan Walker's Ups and Downs: While Taijuan Walker hasn’t had a stellar season, his matchup against the Diamondbacks gives him a good chance to perform well, especially with the support of the Phillies’ potent offense.

Historical Context and Motivational Factors: The Phillies still have a fresh memory of losing games six and seven in the NL Pennant to the Diamondbacks in Philadelphia last season. This should add a motivational boost to the home team. Moreover, the Phillies are 7-0 after a day off and 18-6 after a loss this season, indicating their resilience and ability to bounce back.

Diamondbacks' Inconsistency: On the other hand, Arizona has shown inconsistency after wins, with a record of just 14-22. This makes them less reliable, especially on the road against a motivated Phillies team.

Given the Phillies' strong performance against left-handed pitching, Jordan Montgomery's struggles, and the additional motivational factors in favor of Philadelphia, the Phillies are well-positioned to secure a win. The implied odds and current form make the Phillies' money line a strong play.

MLB: Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees

Pick: Yankees +1.5 / Wager: 5%

Analysis:

Carlos Rodon's Home Dominance: Carlos Rodon has been exceptional at Yankee Stadium this season, boasting a 4-0 record with a 2.30 ERA. His ability to limit runs and dominate hitters at home provides a significant advantage for the Yankees in this matchup.

Run Line Advantage: Given Rodon's home performance, getting a 1.5-run headstart at the same price is an appealing value. This gives us a cushion in what could be a close game, enhancing our chances of covering the spread.

Yankees' Motivational Factor: The Yankees are likely to come out with extra motivation after Thursday's embarrassing loss. Teams often respond strongly after such defeats, and the Yankees have a history of bouncing back.

Chris Sale's Challenges: While Chris Sale is a formidable pitcher, he's not been as dominant as in his prime. The Yankees' lineup has the potential to exploit any vulnerabilities, especially at home where they tend to perform better offensively.

Home Field Advantage: The Yankees traditionally perform well at home, and Yankee Stadium provides a familiar and supportive environment that can boost their performance.

Considering Carlos Rodon's impressive home record, the motivational factor after a tough loss, and the value of getting a 1.5-run headstart, the Yankees +1.5 offers a solid betting opportunity. The game should be closely contested, and the additional run cushion makes this a safer bet.

MLB: Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds

Pick: Under 9.5 / Wager: 6%

Analysis:

Historical Rivalry and Context: Reflecting on the historic 1975 World Series between the Red Sox and Reds adds a nostalgic element to this matchup. However, for bettors, it's the recent trends and pitcher performances that matter.

Andrew Abbott's Solid Performances: Andrew Abbott has been consistently effective for the Reds, allowing more than three runs in just one of his last eight starts since May 1. His ability to keep runs to a minimum has contributed significantly to the Reds' trend of hitting the "under" in their recent games (9-2 past 11).

Kutter Crawford's Recent Form: Kutter Crawford of the Red Sox has shown signs of returning to his early-season form, where he posted a 1.75 ERA into mid-May. His recent outings have been more promising, suggesting he can continue to limit runs effectively against the Reds.

Trend Towards "Under": The Reds' recent trend of hitting the "under" in 9 of their past 11 games is noteworthy. This pattern, combined with solid starting pitching from both teams, indicates a higher likelihood of a lower-scoring game.

Ballpark Factors: Great American Ballpark is typically a hitter-friendly park, but given the current form of the starting pitchers and the trend towards lower-scoring games for the Reds, this factor is somewhat mitigated.

Considering the consistent performances from Andrew Abbott, the improving form of Kutter Crawford, and the recent trend of "under" for the Reds, betting on Under 9.5 runs in this matchup presents a strong value. Both pitchers have the capability to control the game and keep the scoring in check.