Winning Momentum Builds: NFL, Bowl Games & NCAAB Action

Yesterday’s Results – Crushing the Bowl Picks:

Another step in the right direction! We crushed the bowl picks yesterday, delivering the wins we needed on the college football front. While NBA didn’t go our way, the day as a whole was a positive one, giving us some momentum as we head into the final stretch of December.

With just three betting days left in the month, every play matters. Today is a big one, and we’re leaving it all on the table with a stacked slate across NFL, bowl games, college basketball, and more.

The Push for December’s Finish Line:

This is it. The last few days of the month are here, and we’re embracing the challenge with open arms. The BrownBagBets philosophy has always been about playing smart, disciplined volume while maintaining focus and trust in the system. Today is no different—it’s a day for calculated action, backed by data, and a belief in the process that’s delivered for us time and again.

We’ve got a lot of plays lined up because the opportunities are there, and a big day is exactly what’s needed. Let’s get after it.

Today’s Slate – Packed and Ready to Go:

• NFL Action:

• A full NFL slate gives us multiple opportunities to capitalize on Week 17 matchups as the regular season nears its close.

• College Bowl Games:

• Another strong slate of bowl games provides a chance to continue yesterday’s success.

• College Basketball Returns:

• NCAAB is back, offering plenty of plays to dive into with confidence.

• More Opportunities:

• With additional action in NHL, EPL, and more, today’s board is loaded with value waiting to be uncovered.

Final Thought – Let’s Make It Count:

Momentum is building, and with just three days left in December, every decision counts. Yesterday proved what we can do when we focus and execute, and today’s action gives us the perfect opportunity to take it a step further. With NFL, bowls, NCAAB, and more, this is a day to attack the board, stay disciplined, and push for a big finish to the month. Let’s crush it.

NFL: Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

Pick: Chargers -4.5 / Wager: 2%
Pick: Daiyan Henley over 9.5 Tackles + Assists / Wager: 2%
Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson over 43.5 Rushing Yards / Wager: 2%

Chargers’ Playoff Implications and Motivation

The Chargers need a win to clinch a playoff spot and have the opportunity to drastically improve their first-round matchup. Currently sitting at the #7 seed, they would face Buffalo, but moving up to #5 would see them play Houston, a much more favorable matchup. Despite some defensive struggles against strong teams like the Chiefs, Bucs, and Broncos, the Chargers have the talent and urgency to get back on track here. Jim Harbaugh’s 26-7 ATS record as a favorite of 6 or fewer points further supports confidence in this spot.

New England’s Fluky Recent Performance

The Patriots have been feisty in recent weeks, nearly pulling off an upset as +14 dogs in a 24-21 loss to Buffalo. However, that result felt more about the Bills’ poor play than New England’s quality, as Buffalo still should have won by double digits. Rookie QB Drake Maye has been impressive at times but continues to struggle with turnovers, throwing an interception in seven straight games. The Patriots’ offense remains inconsistent and unlikely to keep pace with a motivated Chargers team.

Player Props Analysis

• Daiyan Henley over 9.5 Tackles + Assists: The Chargers linebacker has been a tackling machine, especially against run-heavy offenses like New England’s. With the Patriots likely to lean on the ground game, Henley should have ample opportunities to hit double digits in combined tackles and assists

• Rhamondre Stevenson over 43.5 Rushing Yards: Stevenson has been efficient over his last three games, averaging 4.7 yards per carry and topping 60 rushing yards in each contest. Against a Chargers defense allowing 5.0 yards per carry over the past three games and rarely stacking the box, Stevenson is primed for another productive outing.

Projection:
The Chargers handle business in Foxborough, leveraging their offensive firepower and defensive adjustments to secure a playoff-clinching win. Final score projection: Chargers 27, Patriots 17. Henley racks up 11 tackles + assists, while Stevenson grinds out 52 rushing yards.

NFL: Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals

Pick: Over 48.5 / Wager: 2%
Pick: Courtland Sutton over 64.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 2%
Pick: Jordan Battle over 6.5 Total Tackles + Assists / Wager: 2%
Pick: Bo Nix over 21.5 Completions / Wager: 2%
Pick: Bo Nix over 1.5 TD Passes / Wager: 2%
Pick: Joe Burrow over 2.5 TD Passes @ +140 / Wager: 2%
Pick: Ja’Marr Chase Anytime TD / Wager: 2%

High-Scoring Potential and Team Trends

Both the Broncos and Bengals bring potent offenses into this matchup, and recent trends favor the over. Denver has scored 27+ points in five straight games, with Sean Payton dialing up Bo Nix to throw at a high volume, given their struggling run game. Cincinnati’s home games have averaged 58.14 points, the second most in the league, and all seven of their games against winning teams have gone over, averaging an astounding 66.71 points per game. Even with rain expected, the warm temperatures suggest conditions conducive to a shootout.

Player Prop Analysis

• Bo Nix Props (21.5 Completions, 1.5 TD Passes): Nix has surpassed 21.5 completions in five of his last six games, including three straight on the road. Against a Bengals defense that has allowed 45 completions of 20+ yards (10th most) and nine 40+ yard plays (5th most), Nix should have ample opportunities to deliver. Expect him to comfortably clear 1.5 TD passes as Denver’s offense operates primarily through the air.

• Joe Burrow over 2.5 TD Passes: Burrow has thrown 3+ TD passes in seven straight games and shows no signs of slowing down. With Denver’s secondary plagued by injuries and hemorrhaging points in recent weeks, Burrow is poised to continue his streak. Recent performances by Lamar Jackson and Jameis Winston against this Denver defense only bolster confidence in this pick.

• Courtland Sutton over 64.5 Receiving Yards: While Sutton has cooled off in the past two weeks, this matchup is ripe for a bounce-back. With the Bengals’ defense allowing consistent big plays, Sutton should see close to double-digit targets and surpass 70 yards. Bo Nix’s reliance on short and intermediate routes adds to Sutton’s outlook for efficiency.

• Jordan Battle over 6.5 Total Tackles + Assists: Battle has tallied 17 tackles over the past two games, playing 127 snaps. Denver’s offensive tendencies provide the best possible matchup for opposing safeties. With Battle missing only six tackles all season, he’s a solid bet to hit at least seven combined stops in a game with high shootout potential.

• Ja’Marr Chase Anytime TD: Chase remains a focal point of the Bengals’ offense and is primed to take advantage of Denver’s depleted secondary. His red-zone role and big-play ability make this a strong value pick.

Projection:
A playoff-like atmosphere fuels both offenses to excel. Final score projection: Bengals 34, Broncos 28. Expect Sutton, Nix, and Burrow to shine in a high-scoring affair, with all prop bets comfortably hitting.

NFL: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

Pick: Rams -5.5 / Wager: 4%

Sean McVay’s December Dominance

Sean McVay’s December record continues to be one of the most reliable betting trends in the NFL. He is 15-2 ATS in his last 17 December games and boasts a 25-10-1 ATS record all-time in the month (including 13-6 on the road). The Rams have been one of the hottest teams in the league and have shown they can cover spreads in both high-scoring and low-scoring matchups. McVay’s track record against the Cardinals is also stellar, with a 12-4-1 ATS record over the last eight years and 10-2-1 ATS as a favorite against Arizona.

Motivation and Matchup Dynamics

The Rams have a chance to win the division, adding significant motivation for this matchup, while the Cardinals have already been eliminated from playoff contention. Arizona QB Kyler Murray has struggled in the latter part of seasons throughout his career, posting a 9-18 SU record in December and January (including one playoff loss to the Rams). In 16 of those losses, the Cardinals were beaten by 6+ points. Murray’s late-season fade has been a consistent theme, and the Rams’ defense is well-equipped to exploit it.

Revenge Spot for the Rams

The Rams had their worst game of the season earlier this year at Arizona, but McVay’s team is primed to respond. With the Cardinals faltering and Los Angeles hitting its stride, this is a prime opportunity for the Rams to reinforce their dominance in the division.

Projection:
The Rams ride their December momentum and Sean McVay’s masterful preparation to a decisive victory. Final score projection: Rams 28, Cardinals 17.

NCAAF - Fenway Bowl: UConn vs University of North Carolina (UNC)

Pick: UNC ML / Wager: 4%

UConn’s Offensive Challenges

The potential opt-outs of Chase Lundt and Valentin Senn, UConn’s bookend offensive tackles, would deal a significant blow to the Huskies’ heavy rush attack. Their replacements bring a combined 31 snaps of experience, further exposing a vulnerable offensive line. If running back Durrell Robinson doesn’t play due to entering the transfer portal, UConn still fields two backs with over 100 rushing attempts each, but the offense would lean heavily on quarterback Joe Fagnano. His primary targets, Skyler Bell and TJ Sheffield, would need to step up in a pass-heavy game plan.

UNC’s Offensive Depth and Matchup Edge

North Carolina faces its own potential absence with star running back Omarion Hampton, ranked 13th in Rush EPA for the season. In his absence, quarterback Jacolby Criswell would take center stage, likely exploiting a UConn defense that has played the 124th strength of schedule. Even with opt-outs, the Tar Heels’ offensive depth and ability to attack through the air provide a clear advantage.

Historical Trends and Coaching Continuity

While UConn has improved from its recent struggles, the Huskies have failed to beat three ACC teams on their schedule this season and have just a 20% lifetime success rate against the conference. Meanwhile, UNC benefits from continuity, as interim head coach Freddie Kitchens has been retained under Bill Belichick’s staff. Despite Mack Brown’s departure, the Heels retain enough talent and structure to handle UConn comfortably.

Projection:
North Carolina’s depth and ability to adapt outweigh UConn’s deficiencies, especially on the offensive line. Final score projection: UNC 31, UConn 20.

NCAAF - Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College vs Nebraska

Pick: Boston College +4.5 / Wager: 3%

Wrong Team Favored?

This line feels off, as Boston College may well be the better team in this matchup. Our model sees this closer to a pick ‘em. Nebraska has struggled in close games, going just 1-5 in contests decided by eight points or less this season. With another tight game likely, Boston College has a strong chance to win outright.

Boston College’s Late-Season Surge

Bill O’Brien’s debut season with the Eagles was marked by steady improvement, capped by spread covers in their final five games. The late-season switch to former FIU transfer Grayson James at quarterback added more bite to the passing attack. James’ 64% completion rate complements the Eagles’ run-first offense, and big-target 6-5 wideout Reed Harris provides a consistent downfield threat. The Eagles’ ability to run the ball effectively has been a cornerstone of their success this season.

Nebraska’s Road Struggles and Close-Game Woes

While freshman QB Dylan Raiola has shown flashes of brilliance for the Huskers, Nebraska has faltered down the stretch, losing five of their last six games. Their only road win came against a weak Purdue team, and their well-documented inability to close out tight games remains a glaring issue. Boston College’s balanced offense and Nebraska’s inconsistency give the Eagles a clear edge.

Projection:
Boston College capitalizes on Nebraska’s mistakes and keeps this game close throughout, potentially pulling off the upset. Final score projection: Boston College 27, Nebraska 24.

NCAAF - Pop Tarts Bowl: Iowa State vs Miami (FL)

Pick: Miami (FL) ML / Wager: 2%

Cam Ward’s Showcase Opportunity

Miami’s quarterback Cam Ward is in a prime position to boost his draft stock with a standout performance. Facing an Iowa State defense that struggles to generate pressure, Ward will likely have ample time to pick apart the secondary and showcase his aerial skills. This sets up well for the Hurricanes to lean on their passing attack.

Iowa State’s Defensive Challenges

The Cyclones have had issues pressuring opposing quarterbacks, which will be a significant disadvantage against Ward’s playmaking ability. Without the ability to disrupt Miami’s offensive rhythm, Iowa State will find it difficult to contain the Hurricanes’ offense, especially if Ward gets into an early groove.

Avoiding the Spread for a Straight-Up Play

While Miami’s defense has been inconsistent, making the spread a risky proposition, the Hurricanes have the offensive firepower to simply outscore the Cyclones. Backing Miami on the moneyline eliminates the uncertainty tied to their defensive lapses, focusing on their ability to secure the win outright.

Projection:
Miami’s offense leads the way behind Cam Ward’s strong performance, securing a narrow but decisive victory. Final score projection: Miami 31, Iowa State 27.

NCAAF - Military Bowl: Eastern Carolina University (ECU) vs North Carolina State

Pick: ECU +7 / Wager: 3%

NC State’s Bowl Struggles and Disappointing Season

The Wolfpack enter this matchup with a troubling trend, having lost four straight bowl games. Their 2024 season fell well short of expectations, highlighted by a defense that allowed over 30 points per game. With no significant momentum heading into this game, NC State faces a tough test against an ECU squad showing promise.

ECU’s Progress Under Blake Harrell

The Pirates have made strides under full-time head coach Blake Harrell, going 4-1 since his appointment. With Katin Houser at quarterback, ECU has demonstrated potential and resilience. This is only their second bowl game in the past decade, but the Pirates’ enthusiasm and upward trajectory give them a notable edge in motivation and preparation.

Closer Matchup Than Expected

This game also serves as a precursor to the 2025 season opener between these teams. ECU’s ability to stay competitive and exploit NC State’s defensive vulnerabilities makes them a strong pick to keep this within one score, if not pull off an outright upset. The Pirates’ energy and improved form provide value at +7.

Projection:
ECU keeps it close throughout, leveraging their offensive improvements and NC State’s defensive struggles. Final score projection: NC State 28, ECU 24.

NCAAF - Alamo Bowl: BYU vs Colorado

Pick: Colorado -3 / Wager: 2%

Colorado’s Showcase Opportunity

This game serves as a critical stage for Colorado’s stars Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter to strengthen their draft stock. Both players have been focal points of the Buffaloes’ resurgence this season, and the Alamo Bowl provides one final opportunity to impress scouts and fans alike. Expect Colorado to lean on their offensive firepower to make a statement.

High-Scoring Potential from Colorado

While BYU has shown resilience throughout the season, Colorado’s ability to generate points quickly gives them the edge. The Buffaloes’ dynamic offense, led by Sanders and Hunter, is built to thrive in a high-scoring environment, and this game sets up well for them to dominate the scoreboard.

Why Colorado Has More to Prove

With key players looking to make a lasting impression, Colorado is highly motivated to deliver a standout performance. Their offensive versatility and explosiveness should overwhelm BYU, whose defense may struggle to keep pace with the Buffaloes’ tempo and playmaking ability.

Projection:
Colorado rides the momentum of its star players to a convincing win, with Sanders and Hunter leading the charge. Final score projection: Colorado 38, BYU 28.

NCAAF - Independence Bowl: Louisiana Tech vs Army

Pick: Army -14.5 / Wager: 4%

Army’s Stability and Motivation

Army comes into this game as the model of consistency, with its coaching staff intact, no major player losses to the transfer portal, and strong motivation to win this bowl game. Despite a historic 11-win season that included a conference championship, the Black Knights are eager to bounce back after a disappointing blowout loss to Navy, which cost them the Commander-In-Chief trophy. This sets up a prime spot for a focused and dominant Army performance.

Louisiana Tech’s Role as Replacement and Roster Gaps

Louisiana Tech stepped in as a bowl replacement after Marshall withdrew due to transfer portal losses. While the Bulldogs are happy to participate, they bring a 5-7 record, with their only win over a winning opponent coming against Western Kentucky. Additionally, Louisiana Tech has lost several key run defenders to the portal, leaving them vulnerable to Army’s disciplined, ground-heavy attack.

Mismatch Potential

This matchup has all the ingredients for another Army blowout. The Bulldogs’ depleted roster, especially on defense, is ill-equipped to handle the Black Knights’ physicality and execution. Army has routinely dominated weaker opponents this season, and Louisiana Tech fits that mold perfectly.

Projection:
Army controls the game from start to finish, leveraging their rushing attack and defensive stability to secure a commanding win. Final score projection: Army 38, Louisiana Tech 17.

NCAAB: Bucknell at Syracuse

Pick: Syracuse -12.5 / Wager: 2%

Bucknell’s Struggles and Offensive Inefficiency

The Bison have lost six straight games by an average margin of 14 points, highlighting their struggles this season. Their best win came in double overtime against a 5-7 Richmond team, underscoring the lack of quality victories. Bucknell’s offense has been a major weakness, ranking 335th in offensive efficiency and struggling to shoot effectively. This matchup pits them against a Syracuse team that can exploit these deficiencies.

Syracuse’s Scoring Advantage

While Syracuse has shown defensive vulnerabilities against stronger teams, Bucknell lacks the firepower to take advantage. The Orange’s ability to put points on the board creates a significant mismatch, as Bucknell will struggle to keep up with Syracuse’s pace and scoring depth. This game presents an opportunity for Syracuse to dominate against an inferior opponent.

Line Value and Matchup Dynamics

An opening line of Syracuse -11.5 feels too low given the disparity between these teams. With Bucknell’s recent form and offensive struggles, this game sets up for Syracuse to win comfortably. Our projection for the line is Syracuse -15, making the current number a value play up to -14.

Projection:
Syracuse capitalizes on Bucknell’s inefficiencies and pulls away early, securing a comfortable win. Final score projection: Syracuse 78, Bucknell 60.

NCAAB: Gonzaga at University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA)

Pick: UCLA +4.5 / Wager: 4%

Gonzaga’s Persistent Presence

Gonzaga often feels like Cousin Eddie from the Vacation movies—always showing up and causing a stir. While no major mishaps are expected here, the Bulldogs remain a constant force that demands attention. That said, this matchup presents a unique challenge for Gonzaga, as it’s not a true home game for UCLA but still located in Los Angeles, providing the Bruins with a significant edge in comfort and familiarity.

The Intuit Dome Factor

This game will be played at the new Intuit Dome, where the striking design, including the highly-touted “cool new Wall,” could be a distractive factor for Gonzaga. Playing in an unfamiliar and visually imposing venue may hinder the Bulldogs’ focus, especially against a motivated UCLA squad.

Model Favors UCLA

Our analysis suggests the Bruins not only cover the spread but have a strong chance to win outright. The proximity to home, combined with the atmosphere and UCLA’s ability to rise to the occasion, makes +4.5 a valuable line in this matchup.

Projection:
UCLA thrives in a semi-home environment, leveraging the crowd and venue to edge out Gonzaga. Final score projection: UCLA 74, Gonzaga 71.

NCAAB: Boise State at San Jose State

Pick: San Jose State +9.5 / Wager: 4%

Event Center Challenges for Visitors

The Event Center at San Jose State has a way of neutralizing opponents, vacuuming out any atmosphere and creating a difficult environment for visiting teams. This season, with a competent Spartans team, the challenge has become even greater. San Jose State has turned things around, winning six of their last seven games and covering an impressive eight straight under head coach Tim Miles.

San Jose State’s Offensive Consistency

The Spartans are scoring at a near 79 points per game clip while shooting nearly 48% from the floor. Much of their consistency has come from the contributions of transfer guards Josh Uduje (ex-Utah State; 17.6 ppg) and Will McClendon (ex-UCLA; 12.7 ppg), who have provided stability and scoring punch for this team. This offensive balance makes them a tough matchup for the Broncos.

Boise State’s Shooting Woes

Boise State hasn’t looked like Leon Rice’s best editions, particularly from beyond the arc. The Broncos are shooting just 30% from three-point range, which would mark their worst accuracy from deep since the 2002-03 season. This inefficiency could spell trouble against a disciplined and efficient San Jose State team.

Projection:
San Jose State keeps this one competitive, leveraging their offensive momentum and home-court advantage. Final score projection: Boise State 72, San Jose State 68.

NCAAB: Jackson State at Cal Baptist

Pick: Cal Baptist -13.5 / Wager: 4%

Jackson State’s Road Woes Continue

Jackson State remains winless on the season, with last week’s home game yielding the same decisive result as their road efforts—a loss. The Tigers now face the unusual burden of a cross-country trip for a single game, compounding their struggles and fatigue. Their inability to compete against stronger opponents makes this matchup a steep hill to climb.

Cal Baptist’s Home Advantage

The Lancers return to the friendly confines of their home court after an impressive four-game road trip. That stretch culminated in a strong win over Fresno State, completing a sweep and further solidifying their form. Narrow losses to tough opponents like SMU and San Diego State highlight Cal Baptist’s ability to compete at a high level, leaving Jackson State as a far more manageable opponent.

Mismatch in Momentum and Quality

Cal Baptist’s blend of momentum, talent, and home-court advantage sets them up for a comfortable win. Meanwhile, Jackson State’s long travel and lack of success this season only add to the mismatch. This game has all the makings of a one-sided contest in favor of the Lancers.

Projection:
Cal Baptist dominates from start to finish, leveraging their superior roster and home environment. Final score projection: Cal Baptist 82, Jackson State 64.

NCAAB: Fresno State at UNLV

Pick: UNLV -16.5 / Wager: 4%

Fresno State’s Disarray

Fresno State’s gamble on head coach Vance Walberg appears to be backfiring, as the Bulldogs have dropped six of their last seven games. Defensive lapses and poor shooting have plagued the team, with Fresno hitting just 39.4% from the field and 28.2% from three-point range. Adding to the turmoil, second-leading scorer Amar Augillard (13.3 ppg) has left the team after falling out of favor with Walberg, leaving the Bulldogs further weakened and in disarray.

UNLV Trending Up

UNLV seems to be hitting its stride, covering the spread in back-to-back games with strong performances. The Rebels narrowly lost to a well-regarded Dayton squad before cruising to a comfortable home win over UC Riverside. Their defense has been particularly impressive, allowing just 61 points per game over the last three contests. This defensive edge positions them well to exploit a struggling Fresno State team.

Mismatch in Momentum and Quality

With Fresno State looking increasingly out of sync and UNLV finding form, the Rebels are in a prime position to dominate this matchup. The combination of UNLV’s defensive strength and Fresno’s offensive inefficiency makes a double-digit spread feel more than manageable.

Projection:
UNLV takes control early and doesn’t look back, leveraging their defensive intensity and Fresno’s internal struggles. Final score projection: UNLV 78, Fresno State 59.

NHL: Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers

Pick: Canadiens +2 / Wager: 3%

Goaltending Matchup and Value on the Canadiens

Montreal’s Jakub Dobes makes his NHL debut tonight, and while we don’t have much familiarity with him, his AHL numbers suggest potential. Meanwhile, the Panthers are starting backup Spencer Knight, leveling the playing field in net. With Montreal catching +2 at this price, the value is clear, especially in a spot where one early goal could shift the momentum heavily in their favor.

Sharp Money Indicators

Despite only 17% of the total tickets being on Montreal, 44% of the cash has leaned their way, a strong sign that professional bettors see value here. This imbalance reinforces confidence in taking the Canadiens with the cushion of +2.

Path to a Cover

If Montreal can score first, the likelihood of cashing increases significantly. With Dobes looking to make an impression in his NHL debut and the Panthers’ backup in net, this game sets up well for a competitive showing from the Canadiens.

Projection:
Montreal keeps it close and covers the +2, leveraging sharp money support and an early push. Final score projection: Florida 4, Montreal 3.

NBA: New York Knicks at Washington Wizards

Pick: Knicks -12 / Wager: 3%
Pick: Mikal Bridges over 17.5 Points @ +100 / Wager: 2%

Knicks’ Consistency as Double-Digit Favorites

The Wizards have struggled mightily against top teams, going 4-11 ATS in 15 games against opponents with the top 11 records in the NBA. Even worse, they’ve suffered 13 double-digit losses in that span. Despite covering four straight at home, it’s unlikely they sustain that streak against a Knicks team that thrives in this role. New York is 4-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite and has won five of those games by at least 10 points. The Knicks have also covered four of their last five games, showing consistency even in back-to-back situations, where they are 3-3 ATS with a rest disadvantage.

Mikal Bridges’ Scoring Streak

Mikal Bridges has been one of the hottest scorers in the league, clearing this line in 11 of 12 games this month while averaging 22.3 points. The Wizards’ fast pace (4th in the NBA) and porous defense (28th in defensive rating) set up another strong outing for Bridges. While blowout risk is a factor, Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau tends to stick with his key players deep into games, giving Bridges ample opportunity to hit this mark.

Why the Knicks and Bridges Make Sense

The Wizards’ extreme youth and lack of defensive discipline play right into the hands of a disciplined Knicks squad. With Bridges playing some of his best basketball and the Knicks handling these types of games well, this spot provides strong value on both the side and player prop.

Projection:
The Knicks dominate wire-to-wire, with Bridges continuing his scoring streak. Final score projection: Knicks 124, Wizards 108.

NBA: Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors

Pick: Under 220.5 / Wager: 3%

Sharp Movement and Recent Trends

Sharp money has driven action on the under in this matchup, and the recent performance of both teams supports the play. While Steph Curry is expected to return to the lineup tonight, his presence hasn’t significantly improved Golden State’s scoring woes. The Warriors have lost 12 of their last 15 games, and aside from a 133-point effort against the Mavericks on December 15, they’ve scored below 100 points in nine of their past ten games—most with Curry active. Since November 18, unders are 14-4 in Warriors games, showcasing a consistent trend.

Phoenix’s Offensive Dip

The Suns are also trending toward lower-scoring games, going under in three straight and five of their last six contests. With Devin Booker likely sidelined again tonight, Phoenix’s offensive production will be limited. Their November 30 clash with Golden State, a 113-105 Suns victory, also landed comfortably under this total, reinforcing the likelihood of another defensive-oriented battle.

Matchup Dynamics Favoring the Under

Both teams are struggling offensively and lean on their defenses to stay competitive. Golden State’s scoring inconsistency and Phoenix’s reliance on a shorthanded roster point to a grind-it-out affair, making the under a strong play in this spot.

Projection:
A low-scoring, defensive battle unfolds as both teams continue their scoring struggles. Final score projection: Phoenix 108, Golden State 104.