BrownBagBets Sunday Slate – MLB Value Hunting & NFL Preseason Insights (Aug 10, 2025)

Sunday Slate — Aug 10, 2025

MLB NFL Preseason Value Hunting

It’s a loaded Sunday in August — 15 MLB games and two NFL preseason matchups to keep an eye on. At BrownBagBets, days like this are why we exist. We don’t blindly fire at every game; instead, we scan the board for where value and market indicators align. Our model blends public vs. sharp splits, line movement behavior, and matchup-specific triggers that tell us when the price is worth paying — and when it’s worth fading the crowd entirely.

When it comes to MLB, our approach is built on precision. We watch for pitching mismatches that aren’t fully baked into the line, weather shifts that alter run expectancy, and market signals that indicate respected money is holding or moving a number. It’s not just about picking winners; it’s about consistently buying the right side of the number so that over the course of the season, the edge compounds.

Today’s card will also feature a look at NFL preseason — a market most casual bettors ignore or treat like regular season football (which is a mistake). We’ve got a small set of proven preseason indicators — like specific first-half lines and quarterback rotation depth charts — that we’ll share when the conditions match our criteria.

Every pick you see today comes with supporting details. That’s part of our commitment to the BrownBagBets community — transparency and education over secrecy and hype. We want you to understand why we’re making a play, so that you can build your own skillset, whether you tail us, fade us, or simply observe how the market works.

If you’ve been riding with us since the start, thank you. If you’re new here, welcome. Our vision is simple: disciplined betting, honest tracking, and a shared journey toward long-term profit. Let’s get to work.

NFL Preseason – Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears

Pick 1: Dolphins +3 | Wager: 4%
Pick 2: Over 35.5 | Wager: 4%

Market Indicators: Overs have been a consistent profit center in this year’s preseason, clearing at a high clip across the board. Even with a small bump up from openers, 35.5 still sits in a hittable range. The line has also held steady on Miami despite early public interest in the Bears — a sign that sharper action is comfortable taking the points with the visiting side.

Matchup Context: Chicago rolls out a new era under Ben Johnson, but with Caleb Williams and most starters resting, it’s Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum handling the QB work. Miami won’t play Tua either, but Zach Wilson — who looked sharp last preseason — gets the majority of the first-half reps, with Texas rookie Quinn Ewers closing it out. Wilson’s ability to extend drives, paired with a deep RB rotation, gives Miami a sustained offensive edge against a Bears unit unlikely to show much schematically.

BrownBagBets Takeaway: Preseason success is often about QB depth and game script. We get the stronger QB situation with Miami and a total that still offers value in an offense-friendly exhibition environment. Two plays here: take the points with Miami and ride the Over trend.

NFL Preseason – New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Chargers

Pick: Chargers ML | Wager: 4%

Market Indicators: The market has tilted toward the Chargers with modest line movement off open, signaling quiet confidence from sharper bettors. This is rooted in situational strength — preseason Game No. 2 for L.A. against a Saints team still figuring out its depth chart.

Matchup Context: Jim Harbaugh’s preseason record speaks for itself — 12-8 SU and ATS in his NFL coaching career — and his competitive approach showed in the Hall of Fame Game: zero turnovers, only three penalties, and a disciplined attack that forced Detroit into five giveaways. Today’s QB rotation of Taylor Heinicke and Trey Lance offers steadier playmaking than the Saints’ unsettled mix, especially with New Orleans protecting most first-stringers. This is also L.A.’s only home exhibition, an edge in energy and preparation.

BrownBagBets Takeaway: Harbaugh teams don’t treat August as a throwaway. With a live QB advantage, better camp reports, and a situational edge in preseason experience, the Chargers are the sharper side. We’re backing them straight up for 4%.

MLB – Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates

Pick: Reds ML | Wager: 5%

Market Indicators: Cincinnati’s moneyline is holding strong despite modest public lean toward Pittsburgh — a subtle but telling sign that sharper books respect the Reds in this spot. The stability in price comes even with Pittsburgh at home, reinforcing our confidence.

Matchup Context: The trade deadline addition of Zach Littell from Tampa Bay looks like a win already for Cincinnati. Littell’s Cincy debut at Wrigley was dominant — 7 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER in a 5-1 win — following a shutdown of the Yankees before that. Across his last two starts, he’s allowed just 1 run and 5 hits in 12 IP. He draws Mike Burrows, who has been hit hard lately, giving up big numbers in 8 of his last 10 outings, including a rough go against San Francisco last week. The Reds also enter with fresh confidence after Saturday’s tight 2-1 win.

BrownBagBets Takeaway: With Littell in form and the Pirates struggling badly in Burrows’ starts, this is a clear edge for Cincinnati. The market’s quiet confidence plus a live pitching mismatch has us confident in a 5% stake on the Reds ML.

MLB – New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers

Pick: Brewers ML | Wager: 5%

Market Indicators: Milwaukee is trending toward closing as a moneyline favorite — already there at some sharper books — despite opening as a slight dog. That kind of movement is a textbook sharp indicator, especially when paired with one-sided form trends.

Matchup Context: The Brewers come in scorching — 8 straight wins, 11 of their last 12, and a massive 47-16 run overall. Starter Quinn Priester has been the quiet engine of that streak, with Milwaukee winning in all 12 of his most recent starts. On the other side, the Mets are spiraling — 1-10 over their last 11 — with growing heat on manager Carlos Mendoza and whispers that hitting coach Eric Chavez could be gone if Sunday turns into another ugly showing. Sean Manaea is the Mets’ best rotation hope right now, but New York has still lost 4 of his last 5 starts, and his latest outing was his worst since returning from the IL (5 ER in 5.2 IP vs Cleveland).

BrownBagBets Takeaway: This is a pure form and market signal play — two teams on completely opposite trajectories, with the sharper side getting the momentum from both the odds and the stat sheet. We’re laying 5% on the Brewers ML to keep the streak alive.

MLB – Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers

Pick: Dodgers -1.5 @ +110 | Wager: 5%

Market Indicators: Dodgers’ run line staying in plus money despite lopsided early action is a confidence marker from oddsmakers. Combined with Los Angeles’ strong public-and-sharp overlap, this profile checks multiple BrownBagBets boxes for a value-backed favorite.

Matchup Context: Toronto has been completely neutralized at the plate in this series, producing just two total runs across the first two games — both heavy defeats. Now they face Tyler Glasnow, who has looked increasingly locked in since returning in early July and is coming off a dominant 7-inning, 1-run, 3-hit performance vs St. Louis. While Eric Lauer’s July ERA (2.57) is solid, the Jays’ bats aren’t offering him much margin for error, and Chavez Ravine has been anything but kind to Toronto this weekend.

BrownBagBets Takeaway: With Glasnow in rhythm, Toronto’s offense out of sync, and market signals supporting L.A., this is a plus-money run line we’re willing to back with conviction. 5% on Dodgers -1.5 to close out the sweep.