4–0 Last Night. Locked In and Betting With Purpose.

🔥 4–0 and Fighting for More

First night back from the All-Star break: 4–0.

No gimmicks. No miracles. Just sharp prep, clean execution, and total alignment from the BrownBagBets crew.

If you’ve been with us for the last 3–4 betting days, you’ve seen the fire trail: a run of form that’s been strategic, surgical, and deeply intentional. We’re not just hitting. We’re locked in—across every signal, text thread, model tweak, and meeting.

The BrownBagBets team is as unified as it’s ever been. And it’s not just about the wins—it’s about the reason behind them.

One of our brothers—one of our closest advisors and foundational minds—is fighting right now. In and out of the hospital, battling something far bigger than a line move or a backdoor cover.

So we’re not just betting to build ROI.

We’re betting with focus, with discipline, and for something more.

Today is Saturday. The board is stacked.

And we’re staying hot—for the brand, for the process, and for our guy.

Let’s work.

MLB

Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets

Pick: Clay Holmes under 17.5 outs / Wager: 2%

Pick: Mets -1 / Wager: 2%

Los Angeles Angels at Philadelphia Phillies

Pick: Over 9.5 / Wager: 3%

🔥 MLB Total of the Day – Padres vs Nationals OVER 9 (-104)

Wager: 4% of Bankroll

Washington’s current 15-1 Over streak isn’t something we casually scroll past—and it’s the foundation of today’s angle in the nation’s capital. Friday’s total cleared the number late thanks to a Manny Machado grand slam in the ninth, but don’t let that timing fool you. That result was more about inevitable bullpen regression than luck.

💣 Washington’s bullpen has been downright combustible lately. Closer Kyle Finnegan was just the latest victim to melt down in a high-leverage spot. That’s now four straight games where the Nats’ pen has allowed multiple earned runs in the final third of the game.

Today’s matchup isn’t positioned for a pitchers’ duel, either:

• Yu Darvish, since returning from the IL, has labored—6.48 ERA in July across two starts, lacking command and swing-and-miss stuff.

• Mitchell Parker has been equally hittable, putting up a 9.28 ERA in July himself, struggling to get through the lineup a second time.

Add it up: ❌ struggling starters, ❌ unreliable bullpens, ✅ two teams with streaky offensive upside.

📌 Bottom line: this isn’t a trendy Over—it’s a data-validated fire spot, especially with Washington’s continued Over success and both arms showing signs of fatigue.

Play the Over 9 (-104) with 4% confidence. This is value where the market hasn’t fully caught up.

Athletics at Cleveland Guardians

Pick: Guardians ML / Wager: 2%

🐻 Cubs ML -145 vs. Red Sox

Wager: 2% of Bankroll

The Red Sox have been riding high—until last night. Their loss to the Cubs snapped a strong run of form, and it’s been over two weeks since Boston last dropped back-to-back games. That changes today.

This isn’t a trend fade just for the sake of it—it’s a read on a matchup and a pitching edge that’s tilted toward the Cubs.

🔍 Chicago sends lefty Shota Imanaga to the mound, and while he’s had occasional hiccups since a blistering start to the year, his ability to suppress hard contact and limit damage makes him a strong anchor here at Wrigley. Expect Imanaga to settle in quickly, and if Boston strikes early, the Cubs still have the offensive versatility to mount a comeback.

This is a short confidence play, but one where the numbers and matchup favor the home side. The line hasn’t moved much overnight, but the price at -145 still offers just enough room for disciplined value.

🔒 Lock in Cubs ML -145 at 2%. Expect the Red Sox’s mini-slide to extend at least one more day.

St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks

Pick: Diamondbacks ML / Wager: 4%