How Smart Betting Still Wins at 1–2: All-Star Game Strategy & Picks

📋 BrownBagBets Daily – July 15, 2025

Last night: We went 1–2 overall, but still broke even thanks to our hit on Oneil Cruz to record the hardest-hit home run ball. That’s the BrownBagBets system in action: smart unit allocation, sharp plus-money value, and a long-game mentality.

Too often, casual bettors or “professional” services would grade a 1–2 slate as a losing night. But when you bet value over volume, you can win financially on a 1–2 board—and that’s exactly what happened.

Now we shift our attention to the MLB All-Star Game at Truist Park in Atlanta—the lone meaningful betting event of the day. Below, you’ll find our favorite play along with our supporting breakdown.

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⭐ MLB All-Star Game Pick

• ⚾ Pick: Under 7 @ +100
• 📈 Confidence: 4% of bankroll

Let’s start with this: hitting last matters, and the National League is the home team tonight at Truist Park. The NL is also, frankly, due—winning just one of the last 12 All-Star Games (2020 was canceled).

Tarik Skubal will start for the AL and Paul Skenes for the NL. Both are expected to pitch just one inning, and both threw scoreless frames in last year’s game in Arlington. Skubal becomes the first Tigers pitcher to start an All-Star Game since Max Scherzer in 2013.

Both are current Cy Young favorites, which is why we’re also targeting the No Run First Inning at -145 (playable separately). But our primary position is on the full game staying under 7 runs.

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🔎 Why the Under Holds Value

• 📊 Only one of the past 18 ASGs has hit double-digit total runs.
• 🔒 6 of the last 8 have landed on 7 runs or fewer.
• 🔥 Pitchers in ASGs go all-out—knowing they won’t throw more than 1–2 innings.
• 💣 Batters often turn into “launch-only” mode, swinging for HRs each at-bat = higher strikeout rates.

MLB’s All-Star Game has one of the most realistic formats among the major sports, but it still comes with quirks: constant substitutions, limited innings per pitcher, and plenty of “one-swing” MVPs.

The American League has historically dominated this event, winning 10 of the last 11 and holding a 28–7–1 edge over the past 36 years. But for betting purposes, that trend doesn’t dictate our edge tonight. This isn’t about who wins—it’s about how this game is structured to in this format.

We expect this one to follow the model of recent years—tight, controlled, and unlikely to explode offensively.

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📌 BrownBagBets Verdict

• ✅ Under 7 @ +100 – 4% confidence
• ✅ Pitching rotation supports slow scoring pace
• ✅ No Run First Inning worth separate exposure
• ✅ Follow structure, not narratives

Let’s stay sharp through the break. Back tomorrow with full board MLB action.