BrownBagBets Daily — Monday, Aug 18, 2025

Yesterday: L Bankroll: 130% EPL · NFL Preseason · MLB Stay the Course

Quick reset: yesterday wasn’t ideal—just an L—but the program did its job. Our bankroll stands at 130%, comfortably above start. That’s the signal: process over noise.

We rebound today with a Monday slate featuring EPL (Everton vs LEEDS—welcome back, Leeds), a single NFL preseason primetime (Cincinnati at Washington), and a full MLB board. Volume is our lever; price is our discipline.

Today’s Micro-Lesson: Volume → Monthly Return

BrownBagBets plays smart volume to smooth variance and target a monthly passive-income style return. More vetted wagers at fair prices increases the chance our edge realizes, compared with swinging at a single “best bet.” We pair this with tight bankroll sizing and price discipline so losses stay bounded while wins compound.

There’s a hidden perk: loyalty tier credits. Betting volume with a preferred book can compound value—boosts, promos, and VIP tiers—without changing our risk framework. It’s additive, not speculative.

Confidence in any pick flows from indicators we track: market movement & CLV, ref/ump and schedule spots, weather/park effects, and model edge. When signals align and the price is right, we step in. When they don’t, we pass.

So yes—an L is an L. But it’s just one tile in a mosaic we’re building all month. Let’s execute the plan and get back to winning.

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Yesterday’s Results — Sunday, Aug 17, 2025

Crystal Palace at Chelsea — SGP: Moneyline + BTTS 1% — Loss

Brentford at Nottingham Forest — Under 2.5 2% — Loss

Arsenal at Manchester United — Both Teams to Score 2% — Loss

Arsenal — Moneyline 2% — Win

Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays — Rangers +1.5 4% — Loss

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds — Brewers ML 4% — Loss

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals — Royals -1.5 4% — Win

Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics — Athletics ML 4% — Loss

Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears — Over 40.5 3% — Loss

Bankroll stands at 130% of starting capital

Today’s Picks

Updated: 8:15 AM ET

Heads up: We post picks multiple times per day. New sets are added with their update time and may not be in game-start order—they’re listed as we find edges.

CINCINNATI BENGALS AT WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

4% Bankroll

Pick: Washington Commanders +4.5

TORONTO BLUE JAYS AT PITTSBURGH PIRATES

5% Bankroll

Pick: Under 7 Runs

LOS ANGELES DODGERS AT COLORADO ROCKIES

3% Bankroll

Pick: Colorado Rockies +2.5

EVERTON AT LEEDS

3% Bankroll

Pick: Both Teams to Score — No (+100)