From La Liga to TNF: Expanding Edges, Protecting Gains

Reset & Refocus: Bankroll 171% — TNF, CFB, MLB + La Liga Trial Rolls On
Thu • Sept 25, 2025 • 8:45 AM ET

We finished 2–2 yesterday and gave back a tick, ending the three-day win streak. That’s variance talking, not the process — our bankroll sits at 171% for September with a full week to play. The encouraging note: our La Liga trial cashed again, moving to 2–0 as we expand carefully with one measured play per matchday.

Tonight brings a classic Thursday mix: TNF (Seahawks at Cardinals), a single CFB edge, and more MLB down the stretch. Same philosophy as always — size the edges, stack the days, win the month.

Wednesday’s Results
2–2
Tigers at Guardians
Guardians ML -130 (3%)
WIN
Mallorca at Real Sociedad
Under 2.5 -140 (1%)
WIN
Rays at Orioles
Orioles -1.5 +175 (4%)
LOSS
Royals at Angels
Royals ML +100 (4%)
LOSS
September Results To-Date
Updated thru 9/24
Bankroll
From 179% → 171%
Record
118–105–3
Win Streak: L1
By Sport
MLB 55–46–1
NFL 35–33
NCAAF 17–17–2
EPL 5–6
UCL 4–4
La Liga 2–0
By Market Type
Spread 47–42–2
Moneyline 40–24
Total 13–17–1
Props 19–23
Results by Wager %
6%: 1–0
5%: 2–3
4%: 19–15–2
3%: 37–28–1
2%: 43–39
1%: 6–12
Today’s Plays
9 Plays
Barcelona at Real Oviedo (La Liga)
1%
Pick: Barcelona -1.5 -140
Trial slate: talent gap + chance quality favors a multi-goal result.
Seahawks at Cardinals
3%
Pick: Under 43.5 -110
Pace + pressure rates project a mid-40s cap; totals model leans under.
Seahawks at Cardinals
2%
Pick: Seahawks ML -120
QB/OL edge late + special teams delta; fair closer to -130.
Seahawks at Cardinals
2%
Pick: Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD +100
Green-zone share + run rate vs AZ front; even money playable.
Seahawks at Cardinals
2%
Pick: Kyler Murray O27.5 Rush Yds -125
Scramble rate vs man looks; median near 30 in projection.
Army at East Carolina
2%
Pick: Army +5.5 -135
Tempo control + run success vs ECU front; numbers through 4.5.
Pirates at Reds
4%
Pick: Reds -1.5 +135
Lineup form + pen leverage; RL price offers strong upside.
Mets at Cubs
2%
Pick: Mets ML -110
SP matchup + contact profile; fair closer to -118.
Bankroll Tracker
171%
Starting bankroll = 100%. Current = 171% as of Sept 25.
FAQ
Community Notes
Why 171% still “on plan”?
We target monthly profitability. Sizing + diversification smooth the daily bumps.
La Liga process?
One play per matchday during trial. Track, measure, scale only if signal holds.
Edge = % stake
Higher conviction earns 3–4%+; exploratory stays 1–2% to protect bankroll.

BrownBagBets — disciplined, transparent, community-first betting. We don’t chase days. We win months.

Responsible Gambling Disclaimer

Please be aware that gambling involves risk and should be considered a form of entertainment. It should not be relied upon as a source of income. Ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek advice if necessary. Participation should be moderate and controlled.

At BrownBagBets, while we provide insights and strategies, we do not guarantee winnings and cannot be held responsible for losses resulting from gambling activities. We encourage all members to gamble responsibly and within their means.

Our Approach to Bankroll Management

We advocate for a strategic approach to betting with our innovative bankroll management techniques. Our aim is to help gamblers make informed decisions and extend their playtime and enjoyment. Remember, the smartest bettors always know when to stop.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Contact the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Next
Next

From Beta to Alpha: Passive Income in Action