133% and Rising: The Friday Setup

BrownBagBets Daily Card — Friday, October 17, 2025

Weekend runway starts now. Precision first, volume follows.

Updated: 4:00 PM ET Bankroll: 133%

MTD ledger current through games of 10/16

Today’s Story

It’s a Friday in October — the runway to a wild weekend. No early release today; the team went deep on growth and process in a morning strategy session so we can serve better edges tomorrow and beyond.

We graded a 5–3 Thursday and nudged the roll to 133%. The month’s theme hasn’t changed: edge first, size it right, log every receipt. Let’s keep the compounding rolling into the weekend.

Yesterday’s Results — 10/16

Grade: 5–3 (8 plays)

Steelers @ Bengals

Bengals +5.5 (–110)WIN4%

Under 44.5 (–115)LOSS3%

Andrei Iosivas O1.5 Recs (–122)WIN2%

Blue Jays @ Mariners — ALCS G4

Over 7.5 (–115)WIN4%

Mariners ML (–125)LOSS4%

Kraken @ Senators

Over 5.5 (–125)WIN2%

Panthers @ Devils

Devils ML (–160)WIN2%

Canucks @ Stars

Stars -1 (–115)LOSS3%

October Results To-Date (updated thru 10/16)

Overview

BankrollStart 100% → 133%

Record76–66–3(+5–3 on 10/16)

133%

Bankroll progress

By Sport

MLB21–14

NFL20–21

NCAAF22–14–2

EPL2–3–1

UCL3–3

La Liga0–2

NHL9–8

By Market Type

Spread33–23–3

Moneyline18–15

Totals16–9

Props9–15

Results by Wager % (thru 10/16)

5% plays2–0

4% plays8–8–1

3% plays28–14–1

2% plays32–27

1% plays6–17

Today’s Picks (posted 4:00 PM ET)

Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners — ALCS Game 5

MLB — Moneyline

Wager 3%

Market & PriceBlue Jays ML (–115)

Projected Outcome: Form + starter trend support road equity at short juice.

Model & Metrics

Gausman recent ERA, Jays barrel rate uptick, SEA pen stress in G4.

Wagering Logic

3% ML; fine to –118. We avoid chasing beyond –120.

Evidence Stack

• Road team trend this series not decisive but supportive.
• Jays’ last-2 run burst vs Miller profile.
• SEA leverage pen usage elevated yesterday.

Confidence: 3/5

Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners — ALCS Game 5

MLB — Total

Wager 3%

Market & PriceOver 7 (–120)

Projected Outcome: Hitting form + pen wear lift median toward 8.

Model & Metrics

Jays’ BA jump, Miller Sept/Oct run-in, TTO penalties late.

Wagering Logic

3% at 7 to –120; pass at 7.5 unless plus money.

Evidence Stack

• 21 runs for TOR in G3–G4.
• SEA bullpen strain from G4.
• Run environment ok even at T-Mobile.

Confidence: 3/5

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers — NLCS Game 4

MLB — Spread

Wager 3%

Market & PriceDodgers -1.5 (+115)

Projected Outcome: LAD run-prevention + middle-order thump sustain multi-run paths.

Model & Metrics

Run differential trend, starting matchup edge, and bullpen leverage vs MIL bats.

Wagering Logic

3% puck/run line at plus money; prefer ≥ +110.

Evidence Stack

• MIL scoring drought this series.
• LAD pitching suppressing barrels.
• Home leverage & lineup depth.

Confidence: 3/5

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers — NLCS Game 4

MLB — Total

Wager 3%

Market & PriceUnder 7.5 (+100)

Projected Outcome: Pitching suppresses run environment; median stays ≤ 7.

Model & Metrics

Contact suppression + pen depth; MIL bats cold.

Wagering Logic

3% at +100 or better; pass if juice flips beyond -110.

Evidence Stack

• Series run rate depressed.
• Both staffs controlling HR/FB.
• Game script favors conservative pens.

Confidence: 3/5

Louisville at #2 Miami (FL)

NCAAF — Spread

Wager 2%

Market & PriceLouisville +12.5 (–125)

Projected Outcome: Defensive top-12 profile + efficient script keep margin manageable.

Model & Metrics

SR differential, explosive prevention, coaching situational edges.

Wagering Logic

2% at +12.5 (–125); prefer +13 if market offers –115/–110.

Confidence: 3/5

#25 Nebraska at Minnesota

NCAAF — Spread

Wager 3%

Market & PriceMinnesota +8.5 (–135)

Projected Outcome: Defensive stability + QB protection concerns for NEB keep this live inside two scores.

Model & Metrics

Pressure rate vs Huskers’ pass pro; field position via ST edge.

Wagering Logic

3% at +8.5 ≤ –135; buy to +9 only with favorable price.

Confidence: 3/5

Vancouver Canucks at Chicago Blackhawks

NHL — Moneyline

Wager 4%

Market & PriceBlackhawks ML (+115)

Projected Outcome: Schedule spot + goalie rest edge create plus-money home value.

Model & Metrics

Back-to-back factor for VAN, top-six speed for CHI, and crease matchup acceptable.

Wagering Logic

4% at +115 or better; trim to 3% if market slides to +105.

Confidence: 4/5

Bankroll Tracker

133%

Current position relative to October start.

FAQ

Why no early picks today?

We prioritized a strategy session to sharpen future edges. Quality > quantity. When the prices are right, we fire.

How does sizing protect the roll?

We scale bet size by edge strength and variance. That’s how single outcomes don’t derail the monthly goal.

Do you track everything publicly?

Yes. Every pick is timestamped, graded, and rolled into this ledger so the 133% figure stays honest.

© BrownBagBets — Play sharp. Protect roll. Win the month.