Process Over Reaction — The January 2 Card

BrownBagBets Daily Card

January 2, 2026

Yesterday was a reminder — not a referendum.

January opened with clarity, discipline, and patience. It did not open with results.

A 0–6 night is loud. That’s exactly why we slow it down here.

BrownBagBets doesn’t disappear after nights like this. We document them. We account for them. And we move forward without rewriting what just happened.

Yesterday’s Results · January 1, 2026

Orange Bowl — Oregon vs Texas Tech LOSS

Rose Bowl — Alabama vs Indiana LOSS

Sugar Bowl — Ole Miss vs Georgia LOSS

NCAA Basketball — Indiana State vs Northern Iowa (Total) LOSS

NHL — Washington Capitals vs Ottawa Senators LOSS

NHL — Utah Mammoth vs New York Islanders LOSS

Where This Leaves Us

This is not a confidence crisis. It’s a variance checkpoint.

The process did not change overnight. The market didn’t suddenly become readable or unreadable. What changed was outcome concentration — and that happens.

January doesn’t reward emotion. It exposes it.

Bankroll Status: Post–January 1 drawdown (reconciliation in progress)

Market Phase: Early-January Volatility Compression

Process Status: Intact · Unaltered · Under Review

Dashboard metrics will be fully reconciled once today’s card is finalized. No retroactive smoothing. No selective memory.

Today’s card comes next. Not as a response — as a continuation.

Today’s Plays · January 2

NCAA Football · Bowl Games

Liberty Bowl — Memphis, TN Navy vs Cincinnati
Pick: Navy -7 (-110)

4%

Holiday Bowl — San Diego, CA Arizona vs SMU
Pick: Arizona +1.5 (-115)

4%

NHL

New York Rangers at Florida Panthers Pick: Panthers ML (-140)

2%

Seattle Kraken at Vancouver Canucks Pick: Kraken ML (+140)

2%

Minnesota Wild at Anaheim Ducks Pick: Wild ML (-120)

2%