December Discipline: Staying Accountable When the Bankroll Gets Tested
Tonight’s slate includes a rare full transparency moment: a complete Pattern Walk example for #11 Louisville at #18 Tennessee. This isn’t shared to justify a pick after the fact — it’s shown because the market structure was unusually clean, readable, and instructive. This is what disciplined wagering looks like when the market speaks clearly.
Markets price margin when they believe control is sustainable. Tennessee’s defensive profile and physical game shape imply pace suppression and possession control — conditions that favor separation late rather than coin-flip finishes. That structure aligns far more naturally with a 4+ point Tennessee win than a one-possession outcome.
Our Tennessee -2.5 (3%) wager was placed below where the market ultimately found equilibrium. That difference — not a prediction — justified exposure.
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