A Red Night, a Clear Process, and the Start of CFP Weekend

DAILY CARD · FINAL
BrownBagBets Daily Card
December 19, 2025 · 5:00 PM ET
December tested us last night. A 5–7 slate delivered the first real drawdown in a few days and pushed the bankroll to 83%. That’s not a result we enjoy — but it’s one we document honestly. Discipline only matters when it’s uncomfortable.

What hasn’t changed is the framework. Pattern Literacy exists precisely for moments like this, when noise tempts reaction. As more information entered the market today, several games revealed clearer structure than what we saw in the morning — and when that happens, we’re willing to responsibly increase exposure. That transparency is intentional and always documented.

Tonight marks the start of College Football Playoff weekend, highlighted by #9 Alabama at #8 Oklahoma. This is exactly the kind of stage where market behavior matters more than narratives.
December Performance Dashboard
MTD Record
71–79
Win Rate
47%
Month ROI
–10%
Bankroll
88% → 83%
By Sport: NFL 8–10 · NBA 7–15 · NHL 15–16 · NCAAB 27–25 · NCAAF 4–8 · EPL 6–3 · UCL 5–5
By Market: Spread 34–39 · Moneyline 16–20 · Totals 13–9 · Props 6–8
By Wager %: 4% 12–12 · 3% 23–29 · 2% 32–39 · 1% 3–4
Yesterday’s Results · December 18
Rams–Seahawks Parkinson O38.5 LOSS
Rams–Seahawks Under 43.5 LOSS
Missouri State ML LOSS
Bradley–Indiana St Under LOSS
William & Mary -7.5 WIN
Murray State -6.5 WIN
Long Beach State -3.5 LOSS
Canadiens -1.5 WIN
Sharks +1.5 LOSS
Zion Over 17.5 LOSS
Pelicans +9.5 WIN
Lakers–Jazz Over 242.5 WIN
5 PM Update: As the day progressed, several matchups revealed clearer market structure than earlier reads. Where that clarity emerged, exposure was responsibly increased. Adjustments reflect improved information — not reaction to prior results.
Today’s Plays · Final Card
NCAA Football
Kennesaw State at Western Michigan · Myrtle Beach Bowl
Kennesaw State +3.5 (-110) 4%
#9 Alabama at #8 Oklahoma · CFP First Round
Oklahoma ML (-112) 5%
NCAA Basketball
Tulsa at Western Kentucky
Tulsa -1.5 (-115) 4%
Over 155.5 (-115) 4%
Belmont at UC Irvine
UC Irvine -1.5 (-105) 4%
NHL
Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers
Panthers ML (+105) 3%
NBA
Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers
Cavaliers -6.5 (-112) 4%

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December’s Crossroads: Discipline Under Pressure

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Teaching the Market, Not Chasing It